China

Restrictive

Policy rate

3.00%

Last move May 2025

Inflation

0.06%

As of null

Real policy rate

2.94%

Policy rate less inflation

Debt to GDP

106.90%

2026 est.

Inflation target2%

Policy rate vs target+1 pp

Last move-10 bps cut

Months at current rate16

Real GDP growth4.40%

Next scheduled decisionNot published

Policy rate path, latest five years. Cycle peak 12.06% (Jan 1996).

The verdict

China sets its policy rate at 3.00%, against inflation of 0.06% — a real rate of 2.94% after inflation. The most recent decision was a 10bp cut in May 2025. The rate has held there for about 16 months. The bank targets 2% inflation, and prices are running below that at 0.06%; the policy rate stands 1.00 percentage points above target. On the fiscal side, the economy carries government debt of 106.9% of GDP (2026 est.) and real GDP growth of 4.4%.

Sources: policy rate and cycle history — BIS central bank policy rates (WS_CBPOL); inflation — national statistical agencies; debt and growth — IMF World Economic Outlook. Methodology: https://www.globalfinancialinfo.info/methodology/policy-rates · Dataset: https://www.globalfinancialinfo.info/global-economy · Free to print and share for non-commercial classroom use (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0).

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